3 Bargain-Bin Free Agent Targets for the Maple Leafs

There are a few players that immediately come to mind when thinking about pending free agents who likely won’t be making more than $2 million annually. The Maple Leafs will have some holes to fill on defense, with all of TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Joel Edmundson coming off the books, leaving them with four concrete contracts and a pending RFA in Timothy Liljegrin. It’s possible that GM Brad Treliving opts to look to their pipeline, with Topi Niemelä possibly being ready to take the jump to the big leagues, but even then, they’ll need a seventh option. The bottom six outright needs a revamp, with depth scoring being one of their bigger detractions this season — Ryan Reaves might be a fun burst of energy at times. Still, he’s much less useful than a player who can play well at both ends of the ice while having a better scoring touch. With all that in mind, here are a few bargain-bin pending free agents that should be worth a look this off-season:

Erik Gustafsson (D)

Once a Maple Leaf — albeit for only a short stint as a byproduct of the Rasmus Sandin trade — Erik Gustafsson built upon his breakout 2022-23 campaign with yet another solid season in 2023-24. The New York Rangers were the lucky team to take the low-risk flyer on the 31-year-old Swede, and it has paid dividends; according to NaturalStatTrick, he sported a 5v5 expected goals share (xGF%) of 51.4% during the regular season, being one of two Rangers defensemen with at least 30 games played above the 50% mark, and solely trailing perennial Norris Trophy candidate Adam Fox. He was second — again to Fox — in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), showing his two-way prowess on a team that largely struggled on the back end this season. In terms of his counting statistics, Gustafsson has put up at least 30 points in each of the last two seasons and has a 60-point campaign with the Chicago Blackhawks under his belt.

While his 5v5 statistics speak for themselves and would be a massive improvement to the bottom four, Gustafsson would also bring an enhancement to the Maple Leafs’ power play. No offense to Liljegrin, who is a fantastic defenseman himself, but I’m not sure I’m sold on his power-play efficacy. With him on the ice during a 5v4 power play, the Maple Leafs averaged 7.25 goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60), compared to 7.49 for the Rangers when Gustafsson was quarterbacking. High-danger goals for per 60 minutes (HDGF/60) also favor Gustafsson, who edges Liljegrin in that department to the tune of 3.75 to 1.98. It’s not a monumental change we’re talking about here, but any improvement is an improvement, nonetheless.

In terms of his next contract, I can’t anticipate Gustafsson taking much more than his current contract’s $825,000 cap hit. I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised to see it eclipse the $1 million mark, but if it does, I doubt he garners much more than that. If I were Treliving, I would be offering him a one—or two-year deal worth up to $1.25 million AAV.

William Carrier (LW)

The Vegas Golden Knights are unsurprisingly going to find themselves in a massive cap crunch this off-season, and will be forced to both move some significant pieces and let some of their pending free agents walk to other teams. One pending free agent that might fall victim to their cap situation is their fourth-line left-wing, William Carrier.

Carrier was selected by the Golden Knights in the expansion draft back in 2017, and the 29-year-old has been a staple in their bottom six since. He’s not necessarily one to get on the scoresheet often — his career high in points is 25 — but he has shown flashes of a scoring touch with a 16-goal season under his belt, which is all one can really ask for with a player averaging about 11 minutes per game over the last four seasons.

Carrier’s underlying statistics have long been phenomenal, though, despite whatever the box scores may say. In his 39 games this season — he missed significant time this season thanks to some upper-body injuries — he led the Golden Knights with an incredible 60.23 xGF%. Vegas was excellent at generating scoring chances with him on the ice, with Carrier again pacing the team in xGF/60 while simultaneously showing his superb defensive game by allowing the second-fewest xGA/60 among Vegas forwards. In his eight NHL seasons, he has never posted a single campaign with an xGF% of below 50% and has cleared the 55% mark in each of the last five seasons. He truly is one of, if not the most underrated, bottom-six forward in the league.

As with Gustafsson, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his next contract be worth more annually than his current one ($1.4 million AAV), though it’s always hard to tell with fourth-line grinders who don’t put up many points. For comparison’s sake, the Maple Leafs signed David Kampf to a four-year deal worth $2.4 million annually despite having never garnered more than 11 goals and 27 points in a single season. The caveat there is that Kampf plays an inherently more valuable position in center and hasn’t played fewer than 12:47 per game in a single season to this date. With that in mind, I could see a team — hopefully the Maple Leafs — offer Carrier a multi-year deal of around $1.8 million per year.

Nick DeSimone (D)

Returning to the back end, my pick for the best possible under-the-radar value player is Nick DeSimone. He played 34 of his career 38 games this past regular season with the Calgary Flames and New Jersey Devils, who claimed him from Calgary off of waivers. With the Maple Leafs in need of a sturdy sixth or seventh defenseman to comfortably munch away 14-18 minutes a night for at-or-near league-minimum salary, DeSimone should certainly draw some interest from Treliving.

His counting stats aren’t worth mentioning more than briefly — he had two goals and seven total points in his 34 games this campaign — but his underlying statistics are worth a deep dive. With Calgary, they were relatively unimpressive. His xGF% of 48.06% and high-danger chance share (HDCF%) of 47.66% are below average, to be sure. With the Devils, a team with more scoring talent and a more similar complexion and system to the Maple Leafs than the Flames, his underlying statistics flourished. With the Devils, DeSimone posted an xGF% of 51.47% and an HDCF% of 52.94%. His xGF/60 of 3.48 sat only behind star defenseman Dougie Hamilton (3.5). All this is to say, with a faster pace and more responsibility with transitional work, DeSimone’s game was on another level from what it was in Calgary, and that alone is worth a flyer for what I can only assume to be a league-minimum value deal.

I would be dumbfounded if DeSimone garnered a contract worth anything more than one or two years at $800,000, especially if he is under the impression that he’ll get legitimate NHL playing time. He’ll almost certainly be signing a two-way contract for his next deal, and considering his repertoire over the last few seasons, he’s absolutely worth a look as a depth piece for the Maple Leafs’ blue line next season.

Maple Leafs Need to Find Value Where They Can

With Matthews’ and Nylander’s extensions kicking in next season, the Maple Leafs will need to find any and all value deals that they can get their hands on. It’s certainly no easy task to find depth signings that are all affordable, reasonable, and for a good player, but there are a select few options out there that Treliving and the Maple Leafs’ front office simply need to keep their eyes on. There is no reason for Toronto to consider paying for a more expensive player when the players listed above are available for hire — value contracts now allow them more flexibility for not only next season but for years to come.